[SMM Analysis] Cobalt Sulphate Production in September Rose 8.24% MoM

In September 2025, SMM cobalt sulphate production rose 8.24% MoM and increased 17.6% YoY.

By raw material, cobalt intermediate products accounted for about 59%, MHP about 18%, and recycled materials about 23%. Due to the extension of the DRC ban, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to rise, smelters' cobalt intermediate product inventory gradually decreased, and recycled materials and MHP continued to substitute for cobalt intermediate products. However, MHP and recycled materials have also become relatively tight recently, with price coefficients rising continuously, reducing enterprises' willingness to purchase these materials for production, thus the substitution effect has weakened.

Supply side, cobalt sulphate producers diverged: small and medium-sized enterprises faced tight raw material inventory and maintained low operating rates, while large integrated enterprises had relatively sufficient raw material inventory and saw seasonal improvement in downstream orders, leading to some production increase.

Demand side, orders from ternary and Co3O4 enterprises both improved in September. Some enterprises with low raw material inventory continued purchasing in the market. Coupled with the new DRC policy announced on September 21, market concerns about future cobalt resource tightness intensified, further strengthening downstream stocking sentiment.

By October, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to rise, with profits continuing to recover. Small and medium-sized enterprises' production is expected to remain stable, while integrated cobalt sulphate enterprises with ternary and Co3O4 operations, due to sustained favorable orders, may see a slight increase in production. Cobalt sulphate production schedule for October is projected to rise 3.60% MoM.